基于灰建模的瓦斯含量多变量预测模型研究

研究了GM(1,N)、GM(0,N)瓦斯含量预测模型的数学原理,收集郑煤集团告成矿地质勘探期间及生产期间的瓦斯含量实测资料,获得16个可靠点,选取基岩厚度、新生界厚度、煤层厚度、煤层水分、煤层灰分、50m顶板含砂率6个因素作灰色建模预测的指标,分别建立了GM(1,6)和GM(0,6)瓦斯含量多变量预测模型。根据计算和评价结果,GM(1,6)和GM(0,6)瓦斯含量预测模型精度均能够满足工程精度的要求,说明利用灰色模型来预测瓦斯含量是可行的。由于前者精度略高于后者,故建议告成矿采用GM(1,6)模型来进行未知地区煤层瓦斯含量的预测。需要注意,由于模型没有考虑构造的影响,在实际预测时,还应根据构造对待预测区的影响关系和影响程度对模型的预测结果进行修正。     

Part V—sorption of pharmaceuticals and personal care products

Background, aim, and scope  Pharmaceuticals and personal care products (PPCPs) including antibiotics, endocrine-disrupting chemicals, and veterinary pharmaceuticals are emerging pollutants, and their environmental risk was not emphasized until a decade ago. These compounds have been reported to cause adverse impacts on wildlife and human. However, compared to the studies on hydrophobic organic contaminants (HOCs) whose sorption characteristics is reviewed in Part IV of this review series, information on PPCPs is very limited. Thus, a summary of recent research progress on PPCP sorption in soils or sediments is necessary to clarify research requirements and directions. Main features  We reviewed the research progress on PPCP sorption in soils or sediments highlighting PPCP sorption different from that of HOCs. Special function of humic substances (HSs) on PPCP behavior is summarized according to several features of PPCP–soil or sediment interaction. In addition, we discussed the behavior of xenobiotic chemicals in a three-phase system (dissolved organic matter (DOM)–mineral–water). The complexity of three-phase systems was also discussed. Results  Nonideal sorption of PPCPs in soils or sediments is generally reported, and PPCP sorption behavior is relatively a more complicated process compared to HOC sorption, such as the contribution of inorganic fractions, fast degradation and metabolite sorption, and species-specific sorption mechanism. Thus, mechanistic studies are urgently needed for a better understanding of their environmental risk and for pollution control. Discussion  Recent research progress on nonideal sorption has not been incorporated into fate modeling of xenobiotic chemicals. A major reason is the complexity of the three-phase system. First of all, lack of knowledge in describing DOM fractionation after adsorption by mineral particles is one of the major restrictions for an accurate prediction of xenobiotic chemical behavior in the presence of DOM. Secondly, no explicit mathematical relationship between HS chemical–physical properties, and their sorption characteristics has been proposed. Last but not least, nonlinear interactions could exponentially increase the complexity and uncertainties of environmental fate models for xenobiotics. Discussion on proper simplification of fate modeling in the framework of nonlinear interactions is still unavailable. Conclusions  Although the methodologies and concepts for studying HOC environmental fate could be adopted for PPCP study, their differences should be highly understood. Prediction of PPCP environmental behavior needs to combine contributions from various fractions of soils or sediments and the sorption of their metabolites and different species. Recommendations and perspectives  More detailed studies on PPCP sorption in separated soil or sediment fractions are needed in order to propose a model predicting PPCP sorption in soils or sediments based on soil or sediment properties. The information on sorption of PPCP metabolites and species and the competition between them is still not enough to be incorporated into any predictive models.     

基于ASEB栅格分析法的旅游产品开发研究——以福建省湄洲岛为例

基于旅游体验理论为指导,在福建省湄洲岛旅游资源评价的基础上,运用ASEB栅格分析法对湄洲岛旅游产品开发进行了深度分析,提出产品谱系研究、创新旅游活动、联动开发文化旅游产品以及重点开发湄洲岛中部爱情旅游产品等对策.     

水环境中药品和个人护理用品污染现状及研究进展

综述了当前国内外药品和个人护理用品(PPCPs)在地表水、地下水和饮用水中的污染现状,介绍了水环境中PPCPs污染的危害及其预测、调查与检测方法。提出了我国水环境中PPCPs污染未来的研究方向,包括改进水处理工艺,提高PPCPs的去除效率;提升分析技术水平,拓宽PPCPs的检测种类;深入研究PPCPs产生的环境效应,重视其职业暴露的污染与危害;建立水环境中PPCPs的预测制度及风险评价体系。     

线性修正趋势分析技术在环境质量预警预测中的应用

线性修正趋势分析法根据历年数据建立线性模型并进行修正,预测年度、季环境要素污染物变化情况,可应用于空气质量、水环境质量、噪声环境质量、污染源污染物排放等预警预测数据统计分析评价,为环境决策提供技术支持。本文通过实例论述了该方法在实际工作中的应用。     

区域性煤矿百万吨死亡率指标的宏观预测研究

为了对煤矿安全状况进行宏观预测,提出区域性煤矿安全状况评价指标体系并建立了以煤矿百万吨死亡率指标标征区域性煤矿安全状况的灰色预测模型。在对煤矿综合机械化采煤率、大型煤矿产量比例、原煤全员效率指标预测分析的基础上,利用多元回归法综合预测煤矿百万吨死亡率指标。实例计算证明:建立的预测模型具有输入数据少、建模简单、计算快捷等优点;客观地反映出区域性的煤矿安全状况;该模型可进行煤矿安全的短期预测,并为制定煤矿安全控制指标提供理论依据。     

Using LCA to evaluate impacts and resources conservation potential of composting: A case study of the Asti District in Italy

Separate collection of municipal solid waste has overcome the 50% threshold in the Asti District in northern Italy, nearly one-third being composed of household and green organic waste. In order to address present and future solutions, it becomes therefore fundamental to assess the environmental performances of the current management of organic waste from separate collection. A from-gate-to-cradle life cycle assessment (LCA) model has been developed by expanding system boundaries, in order to carry out the assessment in the context of the whole waste management streamline. The environmental performances of an existing aerobic plant were made available, based on field measured data, by paying attention to the role and contribution of waste management subsystems. The need for actual and reliable data on materials and energy input, as well as gross and net gains from materials recovery, including benefits arising from use of compost in farming activities, was probably the major drawback that had to be faced. The study integrated the findings of different investigations from the literature with field measured data in order to obtain a more comprehensive framework representative of the area under study. The results may help public administrators to better understand the suitability of using LCA tools when dealing with solid waste management strategies.     

暴雨泥石流预报程式

论述了暴雨泥石流预报的４个基本原理，即现象可预报性原理、成困分类组合原理、判别因素简化原理和预报决策依据原理。对泥石流时间预报模型作了分类，提出了通过泥石流活动周期与降水量周期叠加，建立泥石流活动性的长期趋势预测模型；通过泥石流活动年数频次与降水量丰欠等级频次组合，建立泥石流活动年份频次的态势预测模型；根据月或旬雨量确定泥石流发生的阈值关系，建立年内月或旬泥石流发生频次的中期预报模型；由短期天气预